Predictors of 5-year survival in patients with chronic heart failure and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction depending on the presence of type 2 diabetes mellitus

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L. G. Voronkov
N. A. Tkach
O. L. Filatova
T. I. Gavrilenko


The aim – to determine the predictors of 5-year survival of patients with CHF and reduced LV EF depending on the presence of type 2 diabetes mellitus.
Materials and methods. 490 case histories of patients in the period from 2011 to 2018 with CHF, 40–80 years of age (median – 64 years), II–IV NYHA functional class, LVEF ≤ 40 % were analyzed. For the analysis of all patients with CHF and reduced LV EF were divided into two groups: Group I included 338 (69 %) patients without diabetes mellitus type 2, group II consisted of 152 (31 %) patients diagnosed with diabetes mellitus type 2. To measure the values ​​of the independent predictors, we calculated the value of the odds ratio (OR) with a 95 % confidence interval. To determine predictors of mortality/survival of the studied patients, was calculated the Хі-square criterion. Additionally, we calculated the estimate of the frequency difference between the groups, the odds ratio, the confidence interval for the odds ratio, the Pearson correlation coefficient r, for all the calculated characteristics we determined the probability of error of the first kind p. As a result, we formed a final table of indicators-predictors of mortality/survival of patients with CHF with reduced LV EF with and without diabetes mellitus type 2 for which there is a statistical relationship between mortality / survival and the studied indicator.
Results and discussion. In patients without diabetes, many indicators are associated with the prognosis of long-term survival. These include hemodynamic parameters (heart rate, the left atrium size (LV) and indexed left ventricular (LV) volumes, LV myocardial mass index, right ventricular size (RV) and LV ejection fraction, renal function parameters (microalbuminuria (UIA), glomerular filtration rate (GFR), urea nitrogen), systemic inflammatory marker (C-reactive protein (CRP)), markers of systemic oxidative stress (myeloperoxidase, citrulline, uric acid) and antioxidant defence – SOD, as well as the N-terminal fragment of the precursor of natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), flow-dependent vasodilatory response (FDVR), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), insulin and the relative content of lymphocytes in the blood. Patients with diabetes had significantly fewer such predictors: in addition to parameters of intracardiac hemodynamics and heart modeling, other significant predictors of 5-year survival were daily UIA level, CRP, SOD, HDL, insulin and the lymphocyte level.
Conclusions. Quantitative predictors of poor 5-year survival prognosis among patients with CHF and reduced LV EF with and without concomitant diabetes mellitus type 2 are parameters of heart remodeling, LV systolic function-EF, UIA level, antioxidant stress marker (SOD), HDL level, blood lymphocytes and the level of circulating insulin. Patients without diabetes are characterized by a wider range of poor long-term survival predictors, which include indicators of renal nitrogen function, markers of systemic oxidative stress (myeloperoxidase, citrulline, uric acid), flow-dependent vasodilatory response and circulating NT-proBNP. The determined quantitative predictors can be used in algorithms of individual prediction of the course of CHF and reduced LV EF, which should be created separately for patients with and without concomitant diabetes mellitus type 2

Article Details


chronic heart failure, type 2 diabetes mellitus, predictors of survival


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