Development of an innovative technology for predicting the course of COVID-19 based on the analysis of clinical and anamnestic data

Main Article Content

O. V. Shumakov
O. M. Parkhomenko
O. A. Golubovska


The aim – to determine a prognostically significant set of anamnestic (primarily cardiovascular) risk factors and indicators of the initial clinical condition in the population of patients with COVID-19, on the basis of which to develop a scale for assessing the clinical condition to identify patients with a more severe subsequent course of the disease for the individualization of treatment tactics.
Materials and methods. The retrospective analysis included data on 104 patients with COVID-19 (50 men and 54 women, aged 24 to 84 years), who during 2020-2021 underwent treatment (16 days) in clinics of Ukraine within the framework of the program for studying the effectiveness of treatment COVID-19. Risk factors (advanced age, inflammatory diseases, hypertension, obesity, diabetes, coronary heart disease, heart failure (HF)), dynamics of the clinical state (heart rate, body temperature, blood pressure, SpO2, respiratory rate (RR), clinical symptoms and signs from all systems of the body) were assessed. Based on the dynamics of the clinical condition (according to a specially developed scale), all patients were divided into subgroup A (66 patients, more severe hospital course of COVID-19, ≥ 7 points) and subgroup B (38 patients, milder course of COVID-19, < 7) points).
Results and discussion. Among the anamnestic risk factors (RF) of a more severe hospitalization for COVID-19, the following were more informative than others: age > 53 years (HR 1.8 (1.11–3.02)), history of coronary artery disease (HR 1.42 (1.09–1.85)) and SN (HR 1.67 (1.41–1.96)), as well as a model built taking into account all the estimated RFs according to their significance (HR = 1.88 (1.37–2.74), area under the ROC curve (ROC) 0.73). Among the clinical markers (CM) of the first day, the most informative were: RR > 20/min (HR 1.74 (1.10–2.74)), body temperature > 37.8 °C (HR 1.48 (1.13–1.94)) and a model with eight KM (HR 2.45 (1.55–3.87), ROC 0.80). The obtained scales were additive: the combined scale of RF and CM had ROC 0.84, value > 21 units on the first day of COVID-19 had a sensitivity of 76 % and a specificity of 76 % (HR 2.38 (1.58–3.58)) in predicting the adverse course of the disease during the next 16 days.
Conclusions. The risk assessment system developed by us, based on clinical and anamnestic data, on the first day of treatment for COVID-19 allows predicting a more severe course of the disease. The data obtained by us require further study in a prospective study.

Article Details


COVID-19, hospital course, risk factors, prediction, score


Zupanets I.A., Golubovska O.A., Kopcha V.S., Moroz L.V. , Tarasenko O.O. , Bezugla N.P. , Pasichnyk M.F., Karabinyosh S.O. , Maksymchuk G.V., Kobrynska O.Y., Schulga D.I. , Harbuz D.M., Morochkovskyj R.S., Zoschak M.S. Development of treatment technology for COVID-19- associated pneumonia with drugs containing quercetin flavonoid. Ukr. Med. Journal. 2021; 4(144) DOI:

Komarida O.O., Mikichak I.V., Gavriliuk A.O., Laskovsky T.M., Charuhov A.S., Radkevich A.S., Georgiantz M.A., Golubovska O.A., Dubov S.O., Dudar I.O., Kaminsky V.V., Kolesnick R.O., Kramarev S.O., Lischishina O.M., Moroz L.V., Parkhomenko O.M., Piniazhko O.B., Tkachenko R.O., Tovkay O.A., Chaban T.V., Chopiak V.V., Shostakovich L.R., Yurko K.V., Gulenko O.I., Kuzma G.M. Protocol «Medical care of coronavirus desease (COVID-19)», Order #762 of Ministry of Health in Ukraine № 358 (22 feb 2022).

Alle S, Kanakan A, Siddiqui S, Garg A, Karthikeyan A, Mehta P, Mishra N, Chattopadhyay P, Devi P, Waghdhare S, Tyagi A, Tarai B, Hazarik PP, Das P, Budhiraja S, Nangia V, Dewan A, Sethuraman R, Subramanian C, Srivastava M, Chakravarthi A, Jacob J, Namagiri M, Konala V, Dash D, Sethi T, Jha S, Agrawal A, Pandey R, Vinod PK, Priyakumar UD. COVID-19 Risk Stratification and Mortality Prediction in Hospitalized Indian Patients: Harnessing clinical data for public health benefits. PLoS One 2022; 17(3):e0264785. doi:

Angeli F, Reboldi G, Spanevello A, De Ponti R, Visca D, Marazzato J, Zappa M, Trapasso M, Masnaghetti S, Fabbri LM, Verdecchia P. Electrocardiographic features of patients with COVID-19: One year of unexpected manifestations. Eur J Intern Med. 2022; 95:7-12. doi: Epub 2021 Oct 14. PMID: 34670682; PMCID: PMC8514650.

Booth A, Reed AB, Ponzo S, Yassaee A, Aral M, Plans D, Labrique A, Mohan D. Population risk factors for severe disease and mortality in COVID-19: A global systematic review and meta-analysis. PLoS One 2021; 16(3):e0247461. doi: PMID: 33661992; PMCID: PMC7932512.

Cascella M, Rajnik M, Aleem A, Dulebohn SC, Di Napoli R. Features, Evaluation, and Treatment of Coronavirus (COVID-19). StatPearls Publishing 2022; PMID: 32150360.

Dessie ZG, Zewotir T. Mortality-related risk factors of COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis of 42 studies and 423,117 patients. BMC Infect Dis. 2021; 21(1):855. doi: PMID: 34418980; PMCID: PMC8380115.

Israel A, Schäffer AA, Merzon E, Green I, Magen E, Golan-Cohen A, Vinker S, Ruppin E. A Calculator for COVID-19 Severity Prediction Based on Patient Risk Factors and Number of Vaccines Received. Microorganisms 2022; 10(6):1238. doi: PMID: 35744754; PMCID: PMC9229599.

Leidman E, Doocy S, Heymsfield G, Sebushishe A, Mbong EN, Majer J; IMC-CDC COVID-19 Research Team, Bollemeijer I. Risk factors for hospitalisation and death from COVID-19: a prospective cohort study in South Sudan and Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. BMJ Open 2022; 12(5):e060639. doi: PMID: 35584876; PMCID: PMC9118359.

Molani S, Hernandez P, Roper R, Duvvuri V, Baumgartner A, Goldman J, Ertekin-Taner N, Funk C, Price N, Rappaport N, Hadlock J. Risk factors for severe COVID-19 differ by age for hospitalized adults. Sci Rep. 2022; 12(1):6568. doi: PMID: 35484176; PMCID: PMC9050669.

Nishiura H, Kobayashi T, Miyama T, Suzuki A, Jung SM, Hayashi K, Kinoshita R, Yang Y, Yuan B, Akhmetzhanov AR, Linton N. Estimation of the asymptomatic ratio of novel coronavirus infections (COVID-19). Int J Infect Dis. 2020; 94:154-155.

Stokes E, Zambrano L, Anderson K, Marder E, Raz K, El Burai Felix S, Tie Y, Fullerton K. Coronavirus Disease 2019 Case Surveillance - United States, January 22-May 30, 2020. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2020; 69(24):759-765.

Most read articles by the same author(s)

1 2 3 > >>